Navigating Climate Change – Scenarios for Australia’s Tertiary Education Sector is a new report offering a dynamic tool to help Australia’s tertiary institutions plan for a changing climate. Developed by 12 Australian universities through the Australasian Campuses Towards Sustainability (ACTS) Climate Scenarios Working Group, the report was informed by insights from more than 150 staff and students. It explores how climate change could impact research, teaching, operations, student experience and the broader role of tertiary institutions across the 2030s, 2060s and 2090s.
We spoke with Clare de Castella, co-chair of the Working Group and Associate Director of Environmental Sustainability at ANU, about the story behind the report and why it matters.
Why this report and why now?
“Climate change is already affecting communities everywhere. Tertiary institutions are no exception. This report is about preparing our institutions for a changing world, one that’s being reshaped not just by climate impacts but also by interconnected forces such as AI, demographics and geopolitics.
For us at ANU, the urgency is clear. From 2025, we’re subject to mandatory climate risk disclosure. But this isn’t just about compliance. It’s about being proactive, about embedding the changes that climate change is bringing into our strategy, decision-making and risk management.”
How does scenario planning help?
“Scenario planning helps us step outside the present moment.
If you were sitting at ANU in 1955, you would never have imagined what it would look like today. Looking ahead to 2090, we need our thinking to be both evidence-based and creative to imagine how the world could change.
The scenarios in this report are not predictions. They’re plausible narratives informed by science that consider compound and cascading risks. They explore how climate impacts could interact with everything from politics to AI, giving us a way to think through deeply uncertain futures.”
So, what are the scenarios?
“We structured them around two axes: low vs high emissions, and short-term vs long-term government responses. That gave us four divergent futures. For example, in ‘Getting our act together’, the world limits warming and builds a resilient, low-carbon economy. In ‘Juggling with fire’, global climate action is patchy, and extreme weather drives massive disruption.
These are not forecasts. But they help us ask: what might happen to student numbers? To infrastructure? To staff roles or learning models?”
What should institutions take from this?
“The key message is – climate change will affect every aspect of tertiary education. But it’s not just about risk. There are opportunities, too. Universities can and should play a leading role in Australia’s transition to a low-carbon, climate-adaptive society.
That means equipping future leaders, fostering adaptive research, supporting communities and partnering in local resilience.”
Who is this report for?
“Anyone involved in planning or decision-making. At ANU, we’re using it to inform our climate risk assessment and strategy. It’s also a great engagement tool to spark conversations about how climate change could affect operations, research, teaching and our financial models.
While the report is designed for the tertiary sector, the method can be applied more broadly. Climate scenario planning is a recommended approach under financial disclosure frameworks. Whatever your sector, this kind of thinking can build better climate adaptation planning.”
What happens next?
“At ANU, the scenarios are shaping our Climate Transition Plan, embedded in our new draft Environmental Sustainability Plan, 2026–2030. We’ve shared the findings with our interdisciplinary climate risk working group at ANU, which includes academics, operations, planning, HR and other ANU representatives.
This is stage one. The next step is embedding these insights into the strategies and risk planning of every division.”
Final reflections
“Climate change will transform the world as we know it, but the world is changing in many other ways, too.
This report helps us shift from reactive to proactive thinking.
It’s a prompt to think more creatively, strategically and collectively. We need to decide what role we want our institutions to play. Do we want to be prepared, to help Australia navigate the challenges ahead? Then we need to act now to adapt to the risks and pursue the opportunities.”